Research firm New Constructs calls Anthropic's IPO the most ridiculous of 2026, values the company at $150 billion

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Research firm New Constructs calls Anthropic's IPO the most ridiculous of 2026, values the company at $150 billion

New Constructs calls Anthropic's Nasdaq IPO, reportedly seeking a $2 trillion valuation, the most ridiculous IPO of 2026 and values the company at $150 billion.
Anthropic had 2025 revenue of $4.6B and a net loss of $42B, according to a leaked prospectus cited by Reuters, and the firm says hitting $2 trillion would require double Nvidia's trailing profit of over $190B.
New Constructs concludes Anthropic has no viable business because its operating losses keep growing while open-source models spread.
David Trainer's firm has a mixed record: it called WeWork's 2019 IPO ridiculous and WeWork pulled its offering, but DoorDash, its 2020 pick, has since reached an $83B market cap.
Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment.

Hacker News 의견들

Maybe spin out the Opus/Sonnet part for devs at a sane valuation and keep the Mythos and Projects hype in another entity valued at $5T.

New Constructs calls every mega IPO a bubble. They said Uber was overvalued and were right short term, but Uber is way above its IPO price now. Same story could play out here.

Uber being higher later doesn't mean buying at the IPO price was smart. Opportunity cost and time value matter, and the current price could be bad value too.

SpaceX dropped to $108 from a $135 IPO price and is back at $162, which is fine I guess.

Inference margins are already high. The real problem is they have to train the next model right away because of competition, otherwise inference would eventually pay back the training costs.

Open source doesn't have the compute to really hurt them, and open source is where a lot of their coding ability came from anyway.

The model is the engine and the harness is the car. Plenty of companies are shipping with Claude Code, and the cheaper Chinese models aren't production ready in most cases.